Fig. 5: Projected percent deaths from RR-TB averted, as a result of anti-TB vaccination.

Rectangular bars show median estimates and error bars show 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CrIs), both estimated from n = 200 posterior samples for each country. As in Fig. 3, blue bars here show the vaccine-avertable proportions of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) deaths relative to a ‘status quo’ scenario, while adjacent bars show averted proportions in combination with ‘improved RR-TB management’, as outlined in the caption to Fig. 1. The latter bars are stratified to show: (i) the impact of improved management of RR-TB alone, i.e. in the absence of vaccination (orange segment), and (ii) the incremental impact of vaccination, acting in combination with these improvements (red segment). Error bars on the stacked orange and red bars show the 95% CrIs of the total impact of a vaccine combined with improved management of RR-TB. Countries are ranked in a descending order according to the number of RR-TB incident cases in 2018.