Table 2 Infection fatality ratio (IFR) and numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections by age, sex, ethnicity.

From: SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England following the first peak of the pandemic

Category

Population size (000s)

SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence % [95% CI]a

Confirmed COVID-19 deaths

Infection fatality ratio % [95% CI]b

Estimated number of infections (000s) [95% CI]

(a) IFR and total infections overall and by age and sex (excluding care home deaths)

Total

56,287

5.96 [5.70, 6.75]

30,180

0.90 [0.86, 0.94]

3362 [3217; 3507]

Sex

Male

27,828

6.17 [5.76, 6.59]

18,575

1.07 [1.00, 1.15]

1730 [1615; 1845]

Female

28,459

5.75 [5.42, 6.09]

11,600

0.71 [0.67, 0.75]

1634 [1540; 1728]

Age

15–44

21,335

7.20 [6.73, 7.66]

524

0.03 [0.03, 0.04]

1536 [1437; 1635]

45–64

14,406

6.18 [5.78, 6.58]

4657

0.52 [0.49, 0.55]

895 [837; 953]

65–74

5576

3.16 [2.67, 3.66]

5663

3.13 [2.65, 3.61]

181 [153; 209]

75+

4778

3.30 [2.53, 4.08]

19,330

11.64 [9.22, 14.06]

166 [131; 201]

(b) IFR and total infections by ethnicity, age and sex (including care home deathsc)

Female <65

     

White

19,624

5.53 [5.17, 5.88]

1252

0.12 [0.11, 0.12]

1086 [1017, 1154]

Asian

2057

11.03 [8.94. 13.12]

255

0.11 [0.09, 0.13]

227 [184, 270]

Black

951

17.76 [12.82,22.70]

206

0.12 [0.09, 0.16]

169 [122, 216]

Female 65+

     

White

4885

3.22 [2.56, 3.88]

18,315

10.44 [8.52, 12.36]

175 [143, 208]

Asian

130

5.60 [0, 12.64]

852

10.51 [1.10, 19.91]

8 [1, 15]

Black

66

10.44 [0, 24.68]

530

7.10 [0.50, 13.69]

7 [1, 14]

Male <65

     

White

19,694

5.75 [5.32, 6.19]

2071

0.18 [0.17, 0.20]

1135 [1050, 1221]

Asian

2091

13.72 [10.71, 16.74]

545

0.19 [0.15, 0.23]

287 [224, 351]

Black

888

18.43 [13.00, 23.86]

333

0.20 [0.14, 0.26]

164 [116, 212]

Male 65+

     

White

3875

2.68 [2.08, 3.29]

21,383

17.05 [13.84, 20.26]

125 [102, 149]

Asian

121

4.55 [0, 9.22]

1361

19.79 [3.92, 35.67]

7 [1, 12]

Black

55

7.60 [0, 19.48]

867

17.13 [2.93, 31.33]

5 [1, 9]

  1. aEstimates of prevalence adjusted for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity, and re-weighted to account for sample design and for variation in response rate (age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation) to be representative of the England population (18+ years).
  2. bInfection fatality ratios in (a) were calculated excluding care home residents and based on confirmed COVID-19 death counts obtained from Public Health England38. Infection fatality ratios in (b) included deaths in care home residents up to 17 July 2020 obtained from Office for National Statistics41,42.
  3. cDeaths by ethnicity only available including care home residents. The proportions of the population and COVID-19 deaths by ethnicity, age and sex were applied to the current total population of England and the total deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate up to 17 July 2020. The data sources used are as follows: Population proportions by ethnicity43; COVID deaths by ethnicity38; 2011 population by ethnicity, age, sex44; COVID deaths by ethnicity, age, sex45.
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