Fig. 5: Multi-level logistic regression results for the odds of a participant-to-mosquito malaria transmission event from participants with asymptomatic compared to symptomatic infections using the pfcsp gene target.

A Odds ratios (ORs) of the probability of malaria transmission events from infected participants to mosquitoes (N = 3727 participant–mosquito pairings). ORs were computed using a multi-level logistic regression model with the probability of transmission outcome coded continuously. Values >1 indicate a factor that is associated with a greater likelihood of transmission of parasites to a mosquito, while values <1 indicate a lesser probability. Data are presented as odds ratios (dots) with 95% confidence intervals (bars). B ORs of the probability of transmission from infected participants to mosquitoes were re-estimated using multi-level logistic regression models with the outcome coded dichotomously (N = 3727 participant–mosquito pairings). Models were computed iteratively by dichotomizing the probability of transmission at increasing values from 0.00 to 0.55, thereby increasing the stringency of the definition of a transmission event. The dark yellow line indicates the OR at each dichotomized level of the probability outcome, and the shaded area indicates the 95% confidence interval around each OR. C The contribution to the infectious reservoir was calculated using the odds of transmission to mosquitoes from participants with asymptomatic compared to symptomatic infections each month. The yellow area indicates the percentage of asymptomatic infections that contributed to the infectious reservoir, whereas the blue area indicates the percentage of contribution of symptomatic infections. The dark gray line indicates the percentage of infections that were asymptomatic each month.