Table 1 Heat-related excess mortality (%, 95% eCI) by region, period, and climate change scenario, assuming no adaptation or population changes.

From: Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Region

RCP 4.5

RCP8.5

2010s

2030s

2050s

2090s

2010s

2030s

2050s

2090s

Northern

2.8 (−0.9 to 6.1)

3.2 (−0.7 to 6.6)

3.6 (−0.4 to 7.2)

4.0 (−0.2 to 7.8)

2.9 (−0.9 to 6.2)

3.3 (−0.6 to 6.8)

4.2 (−0.0 to 7.9)

6.4 (1.1–12.0)

Northeast

0.9 (0.1–1.6)

1.2 (0.1–2.3)

1.6 (0.1–3.2)

1.9 (0.1–4.1)

0.9 (0.1–1.8)

1.3 (0.1–2.5)

2.0 (0.2–4.2)

4.3 (0.4–8.9)

Northwest

0.5 (−0.6 to 1.5)

0.7 (−0.8 to 2.0)

0.9 (−1.1 to 2.6)

1.1 (−1.3 to 3.3)

0.5 (−0.6 to 1.5)

0.8 (−0.9 to 2.2)

1.1 (−1.5 to 3.5)

2.3 (−3.5 to 7.0)

Eastern

1.8 (0.6–2.9)

2.3 (0.9–3.6)

2.8 (1.1–4.6)

3.3 (1.3–5.7)

1.8 (0.6–3.0)

2.4 (1.0–3.9)

3.5 (1.5–5.6)

6.2 (2.5–10.2)

Central

2.6 (−0.4 to 5.5)

3.1 (−0.1 to 6.0)

3.5 (0.2–6.6)

4.0 (0.5–7.2)

2.7 (−0.4 to 5.5)

3.2 (0.0–6.2)

4.0 (0.6–7.3)

6.3 (1.8–10.6)

Southern

1.9 (−0.5 to 3.7)

2.3 (−0.7 to 4.6)

2.9 (−1.2 to 6.2)

3.4 (−1.6 to 7.7)

1.9 (−0.5 to 3.7)

2.5 (−0.8 to 5.1)

3.6 (−1.8 to 7.8)

6.5 (−5.8 to 14.8)

Southwest

1.2 (−0.4 to 2.5)

1.4 (−0.7 to 3.2)

1.7 (−1.1 to 4.1)

2.1 (−1.4 to 5.1)

1.1 (−0.4 to 2.5)

1.5 (−0.8 to 3.4)

2.1 (−1.6 to 5.2)

3.9 (−4.2 to 10.1)

National

1.8 (0.2–3.3)

2.2 (0.4–3.9)

2.6 (0.5–4.6)

3.1 (0.6–5.5)

1.9 (0.2–3.3)

2.4 (0.4–4.1)

3.2 (0.6–5.6)

5.5 (0.5–9.9)

  1. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the district/county-specific temperature–mortality association with 14 days of lag adjusted for time trends and day of the week, which were pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis. Then, estimates of the attributable fraction of deaths due to high temperature, defined as temperatures above the optimum temperature, were calculated by the regional and national levels. Monte Carlo simulations generating 1000 samples were computed to produce empirical confidence intervals.
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