Fig. 4: Country-specific mobility thresholds to interrupt transmission.

Interruption of transmission occurs when R < 1, thresholds presented are based on the Apple-Google mobility data-stream. Thresholds are only defined when transmissibility significantly decreases with a reduction in mobility. Countries with no threshold are still shown. Points indicate the median and horizontal bars the 95% CrI. Upper 95%CrI limits of the mobility going above 1 indicate that the upper limits remain unidentifiable. Turquoise and orange thresholds correspond to the pre- and post-change in the mobility-transmissibility relationship respectively. The y-axis shows specific countries and, next to their names, the predictive abilities of the model in that country (i.e., adjusted R-squared of \(R_{t,i}^{D,obs}\) against \(R_{t,i}^D\); two R-squared values indicate a change in relationship was inferred).