Fig. 3: Basic model predictions. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Basic model predictions.

From: Harnessing peak transmission around symptom onset for non-pharmaceutical intervention and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic

Fig. 3

a The relationship between the epidemic growth rate λ and the mean reproduction number RE. The grey lines, generated using the data shown in Fig. 2 with bootstrapping, give the range of uncertainty in the estimated function. At λ = 0.3/day, RE = R0 = 3.87. CI stands for confidence interval. b Probabilities for an infected individual being in each of the four phases on day t after infection. The thick red line indicates the boundary between the pre-symptomatic and symptomatic phases. c Percentage of the infected population in each of the phases when the epidemic is growing at a rate λ. The thick red curve indicates the boundary between the pre-symptomatic and symptomatic population.

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