Fig. 3: Retrospective nowcast and forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hong Kong.
The green dash lines indicate the dates on which retrospective nowcast, and 6-day forecast were made (2 March, 14 March, 17 March, 22 March, and 4 April). The blue dash lines indicate the latest empirical Rt estimates obtainable from the epidemic curve on those dates. A Comparison between empirical Rt estimates and Rt from the fitted SIR model. The red line and shades indicate the empirical Rt estimates (posterior mean and 95% credible intervals). Blue lines and shades indicate the nowcasted Rt (posterior mean and 95% CrIs). Green lines and shades correspond to the assumption that population mixing (and hence Rt) would remain at status quo for the next 6 days (posterior mean and 95% CrIs). B Nowcast and forecast of local epidemic curves by dates of symptom onset. Red bars showed the number of local onsets reported on or before the date of prediction. Orange bars showed the number of local onsets reported after the date of prediction. Blue lines and shades.
