Fig. 2: Risk profile of Hotelling Overshoot (light brown), Hotelling Below (dark brown), and Optimal (blue) scenarios.

The upper panel shows the economic impact indicators CO₂ price (in 2025, 2050, and 2100), finance needs for net-negative emissions in absolute values and as share of GDP. The lower panel shows physical impact indicators Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) deployment (in 2050 and 2100), cumulative CDR deployment, and temperature overshoot. The Optimal scenario reduces long-term economic and physical risks and has near- and medium-term risks comparable to the Hotelling Below scenario. *These finance needs for net-negative emissions show upper estimates for the case that CDR is rewarded with the full current carbon price and lower estimates for the case that CDR is rewarded with no more than 250 $/tCO₂, which would avoid high rents for CDR companies. ⁺The temperature overshoot is calculated as the difference of the maximum mean temperature and the mean temperature in 2100 in a scenario where the carbon budget is met in 2100, which is ~1.7 °C.