Fig. 3: Most current—cumulative mortality accuracy—median absolute percent error.
From: Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Median absolute percent error values, a measure of accuracy, were calculated across all observed errors at weekly intervals, for each model by weeks of forecasting and geographic region. Values that represent fewer than five locations are masked due to the small sample size. Models were included in the global average when they included at least five locations in each region. Pooled summary statistics reflect values calculated across all errors from all models, in order to comment on aggregate trends by time or geography. Results are shown here for the most recent 4-week window allowing for the calculation of errors at each point of extrapolation (see Fig. 2 and “Methods”). Results from other months are shown in the Supplementary Information. The colour reflects 50 for values above 50 to prevent extreme values obscuring the scale.
