Fig. 4: Month stratified October models—cumulative mortality bias—median percent error.
From: Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Median percent error values, a measure of bias, were calculated across all observed errors at weekly intervals, for each model, by weeks of forecasting and geographic region. Values that represent fewer than five locations are masked due to small sample size. Models were included in the global average when they included at least five locations in each region. Pooled summary statistics reflect values calculated across all errors from all models, in order to comment on aggregate trends by time or geography. Results are shown here for models released in October, and results from other months are shown in the Supplementary. The colour reflects 50 for values above 50, and −50 for values below −50, to prevent extreme values obscuring the scale.
