Fig. 6: Observed vs predicted to peak in daily deaths—example for the United States.
From: Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Observed daily deaths, smoothed using a loess smoother, are shown as a black line (top). The observed peak in daily deaths is shown with a vertical dashed line (top and bottom). All versions of each model are shown (top), and each model version that was released at least one week prior to the observed peaks has its estimated peak shown with a point (top and bottom). Estimated peaks are shown in the bottom panel (circles) with respect to their predicted peak date (X axis) and model date (Y axis). The grey bands represent the windows prior to each peak within which forecasted peaks were considered, which extend from when the time series began to increase, to 1 week prior to each peak. Values are shown for the United States, and similar graphs for all other locations are available in the Supplementary. Delphi DELPHI-MIT (red), Los Alamos Nat Lab Los Alamos National Laboratory (blue), Youyang Gu (orange), Imperial Imperial College London (peach), SIKjalpha USC SIKJ-alpha (pink), IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (green), UCLA-ML UCLA Statistical Machine Learning Lab (purple).
