Fig. 8: Peak timing accuracy by first or subsequent peak.
From: Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Median absolute error (A) and median error (B) in days is shown by model and type of peak, either first or subsequent (second or third). Errors only reflect models released at least 7 days before each observed peak in daily mortality. Lighter bars reflect first peaks and darker bars reflect subsequent peaks. Illustrations of first and subsequent peaks can be seen for all locations in the supplementary daily death smoothing figures.
