Fig. 3: Model-predicted deaths, infections, hospital occupancy and attack rates of COVID-19 for Damascus. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Model-predicted deaths, infections, hospital occupancy and attack rates of COVID-19 for Damascus.

From: Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria

Fig. 3

The best-fitting model to excess deaths (assumed baseline mortality as 32 deaths per day) is shown, which estimates that 1.25% of deaths are reported. In (a, b) the reported daily deaths and infections due to COVID-19 respectively are shown, with the estimated excess deaths for a baseline mortality of 32 deaths per day shown in (a) as points. A short delay is observed between infections in (a) and deaths in (b) reflecting the decrease in the delay from infection to death when there are insufficient hospital and ICU beds. In (c) hospital occupancy over time is shown, with the dotted horizontal line showing the hospital capacity available. In (d) the attack rate in Damascus is shown. In all plots, the median trajectory and 95% confidence interval (shaded region) is shown. A vertical dashed line is shown for 2 September 2020 when the analysis was conducted. The 3-month projection assuming the current level of transmission is shown in each plot.

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