Fig. 4: Predictive performance of second wave dynamics in Damascus. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Predictive performance of second wave dynamics in Damascus.

From: Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria

Fig. 4

In (a) the official reported COVID-19 deaths in Syria are shown, with deaths in Damascus (gold) and Homs (grey) governorates highlighted indicating the shifting burden COVID-19 has placed on regions outside of Damascus. In (b) the performance of model projections made on 2 September (purple, median and 95% CI in shaded region) are shown compared against officially reported COVID-19 deaths (black points) and the weekly rolling mean (green). Model predictions correctly suggested a decrease in COVID-19 deaths in Damascus after the peak during the Summer, however, they failed to predict an increase in reported COVID-19 deaths towards the end of November.

Back to article page