Fig. 2: Impact of evictions on a SARS-CoV-2 comeback during Fall 2020.

We model evictions occurring in the context of an epidemic similar to cities following “Trajectory 1”, with a large first wave and strong control in the spring, followed by relaxation to a plateau over the summer and an eventual comeback in the fall. Monthly evictions start Sept 1, with a 4-month backlog processed in the first month. a The projected daily incidence of new infections (7-day running average) with and without evictions. Shaded regions represent central 90% of all simulations. The first lockdown (dotted vertical line) reduced external contacts by 85%, under relaxation (second dotted line) they were still reduced by 70%, and during the fall comeback, they were reduced by 60% (fourth dotted line). b Final epidemic size by Dec 31, 2020, measured as a percent of individuals who had ever been in any stage of infection. c The predicted increase in infections due to evictions through Dec 31, 2020, measured as the excess percent of the population infected (left Y-axis) or the number of excess infections (right Y-axis). d The relative risk of infection in the presence vs. absence of evictions, for individuals who merged households due to evictions (“Doubled-up”) and for individuals who kept their pre-epidemic household (“Other households”). Data in b–d shown as median values with interquartile ranges across simulations. e–h Same as above but assuming a second lockdown is instituted on Dec 1 and maintained through March 2021.