Fig. 3: Alternate epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 before and after evictions in a large city.

Each panel shows the projected daily incidence of new infections (7-day running average) with and without evictions at 1%/month with a 4-month backlog, starting on Sept 1, 2020. Shaded regions represent central 90% of all simulations. In the left column, the spread continues unabated through Dec 31, 2020, whereas in the second column a new lockdown is introduced on Dec 1. Each trajectory scenario is created by calibrating the model to a group of US metropolitan statistical areas with similar patterns of spread (see “Methods” section, Supplementary Figs. 5–8). For all trajectory types, the degree of reduction in external contacts by control measures was modulated on dates March 25, June 15, July 15, and Oct 1, with values, reported in Supplementary Table 1.