Table 5 Post-test probabilities for the Random Forest ATTR-CM and cardiac amyloid Random Forest models based on model performance in the Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse Heart Failure Cohort.

From: A machine learning model for identifying patients at risk for wild-type transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy

Model

Pre-test probability of ATTR-CMa

Random Forest model output cutoff for the diagnosis of ATTR-CM

LR+

LR−

Post-test probability, LR+

Post-test probability, LR−

Random Forest ATTR-CM model

4%

>0.50

2.86

0.40

10.7%

1.7%

4%

>0.55

4.12

0.43

14.8%

1.8%

4%

>0.60

5.85

0.52

19.7%

2.1%

4%

>0.65

8.24

0.66

25.7%

2.7%

4%

>0.70

11.07

0.79

31.7%

3.2%

4%

>0.75

15.97

0.90

40.1%

3.6%

Random Forest cardiac amyloid model

4%

>0.50

4.38

0.43

15.5%

1.8%

4%

>0.55

7.13

0.53

23.0%

2.2%

4%

>0.60

12.37

0.66

34.2%

2.7%

4%

>0.65

21.78

0.79

47.8%

3.2%

4%

>0.70

39.37

0.89

62.3%

3.6%

4%

>0.75

72.18

0.96

75.2%

3.9%

  1. The random forest ATTR-CM model was derived using diagnosis codes specifically for wild-type ATTR-CM. The random forest cardiac amyloid model was derived using the more nonspecific umbrella diagnosis code for cardiac amyloidosis.
  2. ATTR-CM amyloidogenic transthyretin cardiomyopathy, LR+ positive likelihood ratio, LR− negative likelihood ratio.
  3. aPre-test probability was estimated to be 4% based on a prior publication (Kazi et al.20) that modeled the estimated prevalence of ATTR-CM in heart failure patients.