Fig. 5: The effect of spatially homogeneous controls on subthreshold epidemic size.
From: The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
The SEPIAR model has been simulated seeding one by one each of the 107 Italian provinces with an initial abundance of exposed individuals Ei(0) = 100 (details as in Fig. 4a), for parameter combinations resulting in \({{\mathcal{R}}}_{{{c}}}\, <\, 1\) (above the red solid curve) and ec > 0 (below the blue dashed curve). Gray shading represents the total number of cases over the whole national territory c(τ) up to the end of the simulation timespan (τ = 90 days), evaluated as the median of the values obtained with different initial conditions (i.e., outbreaks starting from each of the different provinces). Parameters as in Table 2, with ϵi = ϵ, ξij = 0.5, \({\chi }_{i}^{X}=\chi\) for all i’s, j’s, and X ∈ {E, P, I, A}, and wX = 1 (X ∈ {E, P, I, A}).
