Table 1 Overview over key variables in the scenario simulations leading to the PACT1.5: Global mean surface temperature (T\({}_{{{{{\rm{surf}}}}}^{+1}}\)), soil temperature at a depth of 3 m (T3 m), permafrost volume within the top 3 m of the soil (Permtop3), total soil water (H2Otot), vegetated fraction (Veg\({}_{\max }\)), total terrestrial carbon stocks (Ctot), total soil carbon (Csoil), net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rsoil), and net ecosystem carbon flux into the atmosphere (NEF). Values refer to a given variable when reaching the PACT1.5 (20 year running mean), while values in brackets refer to the preceding peak. With the exception of Tsurf, all values constitute the average or accumulation over the permafrost-affected regions (Fig. 1a).

From: Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios

Simulation

T\({}_{{{{{\rm{surf}}}}}^{+1}}\) (°C)

T3m (°C)

Permtop3 (%)

H2Otot (m)

Veg\({}_{\max }\) (%)

Ctot (GtC)

Csoil (GtC)

NPP GtC (year−1)

Rsoil GtC (year−1)

NEF GtC (year−1)

NoOS

15.7

−3.6

56

1.01

71

689

665

4.51

4.47

0.18

P2050

15.7 (16.2)

−3.3 (−2.7)

51 (48)

0.99 (1.00)

74 (74)

685 (687)

653 (657)

4.88 (5.28)

4.66 (5.35)

0.03 (0.34)

P2075

15.7 (17.4)

−3.1 (−0.8)

49 (26)

0.98 (0.96)

81 (81)

668 (671)

622 (631)

5.17 (7.22)

4.63 (7.61)

−0.26 (0.88)

P2100

15.7 (18.7)

−3.1 (1.6)

49 (9)

0.96 (0.93)

85 (86)

650 (649)

594 (595)

5.22 (9.0)

4.72 (9.2)

−0.24 (0.77)

  1. +1 denotes global mean.