Fig. 3: Predictive accuracy of ARR estimates of net diversification rate.

Forward-time prediction error (positive lag) for species richness under ARR rate estimates (ε = 0.5: red circles; ε = 0.9: blue triangles) for paleontological diversity-through-time series. Solid gray line denotes maximum richness observed for each clade; dotted line is number of described species on Earth. ARR prediction errors increase rapidly as a function of lag time, even for clades that appear to be undergoing rapid increases in diversity through time (e.g., Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Dinosauria; Supplementary Fig. 1). Points show median absolute prediction error in species richness for all pairs of timepoints that fall within a particular lag bin (e.g., +15 to +30 my). ARR estimates of net diversification rate have virtually no ability to predict future diversity for any paleontological time series.