Fig. 3: Effects of experimental warming on phenology.

Reproductive phenophases shifted with a greater magnitude than vegetative phenophases to experimental warming. Density plots of modeled estimates of treatment effects for the difference (in days) in phenophase timing for plants growing in OTC versus control (CTL) plots. Colors designate each of the 6 measured phenophases. Estimates are shown on the x axis and phenophases are plotted vertically including data from all sites, years, and species as modeled using Eq. 2. Black vertical lines denote zero difference (no change) in the timing of phenology between OTC and CTL plots while red and gray dashed lines denote the 90% and 95% Bayesian credible intervals, respectively. Peaks to the left of black lines indicate an advancement, while peaks to the right of black lines indicate a delay, of that phenophase in response to warming. Created using the ggplot2 package (v 3.3.2)¹⁰⁶ in R.