Fig. 5: Expert judgement of feasible future technology developments (left) and the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic (right). | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Expert judgement of feasible future technology developments (left) and the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic (right).

From: Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Fig. 5

a as in Fig. 1, changes in fuel use (red) and NOx emissions (blue) taking into account a bottom-up analysis of aviation technologies; three far future technology pathways are taken into account, with a ± 10% uncertainty range, each leading to a scenario range; b Transport volume for the scenario taking into account a reduction of flight due to COVID-19 with three assumptions: a short recovery of 3 years (red); a longer recovery of 15 years (brown) and in addition to a long recovery a behavioural change after COVID-19 (yellow). c Resulting temperature changes as in Fig. 2 for the range of ECATS scenarios (green) and the BAU scenario for comparison (blue). d Resulting temperature changes from the 3 COVID-19 scenarios (red, brown, and yellow) in comparison to the BAU scenario (blue). The scenario BAU describes a business-as-usual future technological improvement and ECATS bottom-up estimates based on a group of experts from ECATS (Environmentally Compatible Air Transportation System).

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