Fig. 4: The POMDP model captures the monkeys’ behavior. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: The POMDP model captures the monkeys’ behavior.

From: Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge explains perceptual confidence and its deviations from accuracy

Fig. 4

a The model was fit to each monkey’s accuracy on trials without the sure-bet option. Solid lines are model fits and data points are the measured accuracy for each motion strength and duration for monkeys M1 and M2. b The model parameters obtained from the fits in (a) were used to predict confidence for each motion strength and duration for each monkey. c Predictions of the POMDP model about confidence were thresholded to fit the likelihood of choosing the sure-bet option (see Methods). d With the model parameters fully constrained by accuracy on trials without the sure-bet target and the likelihood of choosing the sure-bet target when it was presented to the monkey, we predicted the monkey’s accuracy on trials in which the sure-bet target was shown but ignored. Lines are model predictions. Data points are the same as in Fig. 1b, c. Error bars indicate s.e.m.

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