Fig. 1: Probability of a large outbreak.
Probability of a large outbreak (>2000 cases) for different TTI (Test, Trace and Isolate) compliance scenarios for instant testing and tracing (dashed, green) and a 2-day delay (solid, orange), assuming 95% test sensitivity. Poor reporting & adherence (top): 11.9% self-reporting; 18.2% isolation on symptoms; 10.9% isolation on tracing. Good reporting & adherence (middle): 50% self-reporting; 70% isolation on symptoms; 65% isolation on tracing. Boosted adherence (bottom): 50% self-reporting; 70% isolation on symptoms; 90% isolation on tracing. Left: Rs = 1.3. Right: Rs = 1.5. Error bars: 99% confidence intervals from output variation of 5000 simulations. TTI test, trace and isolate.
