Fig. 4: Outbreak thresholds. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Outbreak thresholds.

From: Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence

Fig. 4

Probability of a large outbreak (>2000 cases) by total number of cases so far (observed and unobserved). Sensitivity = 95%, self-reporting proportion = 50%, time to test from isolation = 1 day, with contact tracing coverage scenarios of 0 (blue, solid), 0.2 (pink, long-dashed), 0.4 (red, short-dashed), 0.6 (orange, dot-dashed) and 0.8 (green, dotted). Error windows: 95% confidence intervals from output variation of 5000 simulations.

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