Table 1 Model parameters values/ranges.

Number of initial cases

5

Effective reproduction number under physical distancing, R_S

1.3, 1.5

Dispersion of R_S, k

0.23

²⁷

Proportion asymptomatic

31%

²²

Delay: onset to isolation

1 day

Incubation period (Lognormal)

Mean log: 1.43

^{23, 24}

Incubation period (Lognormal)

sd log: 0.66

^{23, 24}

Infection time (Gamma)

Shape: 17.77

²³

Infection time (Gamma)

Rate: 1.39 day⁻¹

Fitted from²³

Infection time shift

−13.0 days

²³

Untraced self-isolation prob.

18.2%, 70%

Based on¹²

Self-reporting probability

11.9%, 50%

Based on¹²

Traced isolation adherence prob.

10.9%, 65%, 90%

¹²

Contact tracing coverage

0–80%

Test sensitivity

65%, 95%

^{26, 35, 40, 41}

Time to test result (days)

0, 2

Isolation duration if −ve test

7 days