Fig. 5: Model-specific forecast scores are relative to equally weighted ensemble model for each department and forecasting target.
From: Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
a Timing of peak week (within 2 weeks). b Incidence at peak week. c Onset week, or the week by which ten cumulative cases occurred. Forecast scores are averaged over the department. Models are ordered on the y-axis by average forecast score for each forecasting target, with model names abbreviated in the same manner as Fig. 4. Departments are ordered on the x-axis from high to low for overall incidence. In the heat plot, blue indicates individual model performed better than the ensemble model in a given department, red indicates individual model performed worse than ensemble model, and white indicates individual model performed roughly the same as the ensemble model.
