Fig. 4: Model projections of infection, under different scenarios of VOC co-circulation, NPIs, and reduction of vaccine efficacy (VE) against the VOCs.

a Example projected epidemic trajectories for each variant assuming mRNA vaccines are used and the VE is as high as for the wild-type virus. Lines and surrounding areas show model-projected median and interquartile range, from n = 1000 simulations (color-coded for each variant as indicated by the legend). b Tallies over the entire simulation period (May–Aug 2021) for different scenarios of seeding, change in VE (as indicated in the subtitles, see detail in Supplementary Table 5), and NPIs (as indicated by the x axis labels, see detail in Supplementary Table 5). All numbers are scaled to per 1 million people. For the projected percentages for each variant and uncertainty bounds, see Supplementary Table 1.