Fig. 3: Outbreak potential and sensitivity of epidemic trajectories to the introduction time of a variant of concern (VOC) targeted vaccine for VOC E. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Outbreak potential and sensitivity of epidemic trajectories to the introduction time of a variant of concern (VOC) targeted vaccine for VOC E.

From: Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Fig. 3

a The probability of an epidemic for varying relative transmissibilities (compared with resident variants) versus a given count of VOC-effective imports per day (corresponding to the second generation cases that result from a single-index case). In panels b–d, we performed simulations using the parsimonious SARS-CoV-2 transmission model for differing effective VOC importation counts and introduction date of a VOC-targeted vaccine and evaluated the following epidemiological summary statistics for the resultant VOC outbreak; b final size; c peak in infectious prevalence; d time of peak in infectious prevalence.

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