Table 2 Observed number of secondary cases by reported severity level for COVID-19 in China, and the estimated distribution of severity levels of natural infections based on secondary cases.
From: Using secondary cases to characterize the severity of an emerging or re-emerging infection
| Â | Asymptomatic | Mild | Moderate | Severe or critical | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated distribution of severity levels of natural infections | |||||
Luo et al. (Guangzhou, China) | |||||
Number of secondary cases | 8 | 18 | 84 | 11 | 121 |
Estimated distribution of severity level | 0.07 (0.03, 0.12) | 0.15 (0.09, 0.22) | 0.69 (0.6, 0.77) | 0.09 (0.05, 0.15) | Â |
Hu et al. (Hunan, China) | |||||
Number of secondary cases | 104 | 153 | 174 | 40 | 471 |
Estimated distribution of severity level | 0.22 (0.18, 0.26) | 0.32 (0.28, 0.37) | 0.37 (0.33, 0.41) | 0.09 (0.06, 0.11) | Â |
Estimated numbers of total index cases before and after correcting for case ascertainment bias | |||||
Guangzhou, China from Jan 13 to Mar 6, 2020, severity information available for 68/244 (28%) of index cases (based on Luo et al.) | |||||
Observed number | 1 | 5 | 42 | 20 | 68 |
Estimated number before correcting bias | 4 (1, 14) | 18 (8, 34) | 149 (125, 172) | 71 (51, 95) | 244 |
Estimated number after correcting bias | 51 (19, 131) | 115 (51, 265) | 535 (270, 1108) | 71 (51, 95) | 830 (421, 1539) |
Proportion of missed index cases | 0.93 (0.59, 0.99) | 0.85 (0.54, 0.95) | 0.72 (0.41, 0.88) | 0 (0, 0) | 0.67 (0.42, 0.84) |
Wuhan, China from Dec 2, 2019 to Apr 18, 2020, severity information available for 29578/38563 (77%) of index cases (based on Li et al.) | |||||
Observed number | 567 | 14928 | 8416 | 5667 | 29578 |
Estimated number before correcting bias | 739 (711, 769) | 19463 (19360, 19570) | 10972 (10878, 11065) | 7388 (7303, 7474) | 38563 |
Estimated number after correcting biasa | 19236 (13486, 27854) | 28275 (20055, 40448) | 31996 (23059, 45905) | 7388 (7303, 7474) | 88349 (65545, 119106) |
Proportion of missed index cases | 0.96 (0.94, 0.97) | 0.31 (0.03, 0.52) | 0.66 (0.52, 0.76) | 0 (0, 0) | 0.55 (0.41, 0.68) |
