Fig. 6: Simulation results stratified by weight for age z-score (WAZ).

A Predicted piperaquine (PPQ) trough concentrations for simulated dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) regimens, stratified by nutritional status. Data are derived from 1000 simulations of 856 children <2 years of age. The red line indicates the 15.4 ng/mL PPQ target. Points indicate observed data, boxes indicate PPQ levels for 25% (minima), 50% (center), and 75% (maxima) of the population, and vertical bars represent PPQ levels for 95% of the population. B Predicted malaria incidence by DP regimen with increasing baseline malaria transmission, stratified by nutritional status and adherence level (1/3 adherence indicates bioavailability observed for non-direct observed therapy in the study, 2/3 adherence indicates a bioavailability midpoint between the directly and non-directly observed population, and full adherence indicates the bioavailability observed in the directly observed therapy group). Data are derived from 10,000 simulations of 856 children <2 years of age. C Predicted peak PPQ concentrations by DP regimen, assuming full adherence. Data are derived from 1000 simulations of 280 children <2 years of age. Points indicate observed data, boxes indicate PPQ levels for 25% (minima), 50% (center), and 75% (maxima) of the population, and vertical bars represent PPQ levels for 95% of the population. In text is the median and 2.5–97.5% range of predicted population values for peak PPQ concentrations during chemoprevention. Age-based dosing indicates daily PPQ doses as follows: <6 months = 160 mg; 6–<18 mo = 240 mg; 18–26 mo = 320 mg.