Table 2 Model-estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 26 selected infectious diseases.

From: Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

Disease†

South

North

Phase II‡

Phase III‡

Phase IV‡

Phase II‡

Phase III‡

Phase IV‡

IRR (95%CI)

p value

IRR (95%CI)

p value

IRR (95%CI)

p value

IRR (95%CI)

p value

IRR (95%CI)

p value

IRR (95%CI)

p value

Respiratory diseases

Measles

0.55 (0.28−1.06)

0.080

0.78 (0.51−1.18)

0.238

0.72 (0.43−1.20)

0.213

0.02 (0.001−0.44)

0.017

1.85 (0.37−9.30)

0.460

4.47 (1.2−16.58)

0.028

Mumps

0.53 (0.39−0.71)

<0.001

0.38 (0.32−0.44)

<0.001

0.33 (0.28−0.39)

<0.001

0.48 (0.35−0.65)

<0.001

0.34 (0.28−0.41)

<0.001

0.40 (0.33−0.48)

<0.001

Pertussis

0.45 (0.23−0.88)

0.022

0.06 (0.03−0.10)

<0.001

0.12 (0.08−0.18)

<0.001

0.23 (0.13−0.40)

<0.001

0.05 (0.03−0.08)

<0.001

0.11 (0.07−0.17)

<0.001

Rubella

0.10 (0.02−0.47)

0.005

0.02 (0.004−0.08)

<0.001

0.01 (0.004−0.06)

<0.001

0.18 (0.06−0.59)

0.006

0.06 (0.02−0.15)

<0.001

0.11 (0.06−0.23)

<0.001

Scarlet fever

0.22 (0.15−0.32)

<0.001

0.26 (0.21−0.32)

<0.001

0.26 (0.21−0.31)

<0.001

0.11 (0.07−0.18)

<0.001

0.10 (0.07−0.14)

<0.001

0.13 (0.10−0.17)

<0.001

Seasonal influenza

0.16 (0.03−0.76)

0.024

0.06 (0.02−0.15)

<0.001

0.05 (0.02−0.12)

<0.001

0.21 (0.10−0.44)

<0.001

0.15 (0.10−0.23)

<0.001

0.11 (0.07−0.17)

<0.001

Tuberculosis

0.87 (0.78−0.97)

0.014

0.97 (0.92−1.03)

0.389

0.96 (0.91−1.02)

0.221

0.85 (0.73−1.00)

0.057

0.86 (0.79−0.94)

<0.001

0.83 (0.76−0.90)

<0.001

Gastrointestinal or enteroviral disease

AHC

0.67 (0.38−1.18)

0.172

0.49 (0.36−0.68)

<0.001

0.46 (0.33−0.65)

<0.001

0.96 (0.83−1.11)

0.577

1.01 (0.93−1.09)

0.844

1.18 (1.10−1.27)

<0.001

Bacterial dysentery

0.71 (0.58−0.85)

<0.001

0.85 (0.77−0.95)

0.004

0.84 (0.75−0.93)

0.002

0.62 (0.50−0.75)

<0.001

0.76 (0.68−0.84)

<0.001

0.84 (0.75−0.93)

0.001

Hepatitis A

0.66 (0.54−0.81)

<0.001

0.83 (0.75−0.92)

<0.001

0.91 (0.82−1.00)

0.060

0.87 (0.70−1.08)

0.219

0.69 (0.61−0.79)

<0.001

0.61 (0.54−0.70)

<0.001

Hepatitis E

0.70 (0.58−0.84)

<0.001

0.78 (0.71−0.86)

<0.001

0.80 (0.73−0.88)

<0.001

0.70 (0.57−0.86)

0.001

0.78 (0.70−0.87)

<0.001

0.80 (0.72−0.89)

<0.001

HFMD

0.10 (0.02−0.49)

0.006

0.20 (0.10−0.42)

<0.001

0.77 (0.54−1.10)

0.160

0.10 (0.03−0.33)

<0.001

0.13 (0.07−0.25)

<0.001

0.31 (0.21−0.47)

<0.001

Infectious diarrhea

0.49 (0.31−0.77)

0.003

0.86 (0.69−1.07)

0.172

0.83 (0.67−1.02)

0.084

0.52 (0.37−0.72)

<0.001

0.72 (0.62−0.83)

<0.001

0.77 (0.68−0.88)

<0.001

Typhoid and paratyphoid

0.71 (0.54−0.94)

0.019

0.73 (0.64−0.84)

<0.001

0.70 (0.60−0.80)

<0.001

0.61 (0.37−1.00)

0.054

0.68 (0.52−0.89)

0.007

0.68 (0.52−0.88)

0.005

Amebic dysentery

0.78 (0.56−1.09)

0.156

1.17 (0.99−1.39)

0.073

1.13 (0.96−1.34)

0.153

−

−

−

−

−

−

Sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases

Gonorrhea

0.80 (0.61−1.03)

0.088

1.25 (1.11−1.42)

<0.001

1.30 (1.15−1.46)

<0.001

0.45 (0.37−0.54)

<0.001

0.82 (0.75−0.89)

<0.001

0.96 (0.88−1.04)

0.320

Syphilis

0.72 (0.62−0.82)

<0.001

0.85 (0.79−0.91)

<0.001

0.84 (0.79−0.90)

<0.001

0.69 (0.58−0.81)

<0.001

0.88 (0.81−0.95)

0.002

0.86 (0.80−0.92)

<0.001

HIV/AIDS

0.93 (0.78−1.11)

0.438

0.92 (0.84−1.00)

0.063

0.87 (0.80−0.95)

0.003

0.89 (0.75−1.05)

0.172

0.92 (0.84−1.01)

0.072

0.93 (0.85−1.02)

0.111

Hepatitis B

0.77 (0.68−0.86)

<0.001

0.97 (0.91−1.03)

0.324

0.96 (0.91−1.02)

0.172

0.69 (0.58−0.81)

<0.001

0.90 (0.84−0.98)

0.013

0.88 (0.81−0.95)

0.001

Hepatitis C

0.69 (0.62−0.77)

<0.001

0.95 (0.91−1.00)

0.075

0.95 (0.91−1.00)

0.065

0.62 (0.52−0.74)

<0.001

0.88 (0.80−0.95)

0.003

0.87 (0.80−0.94)

0.001

Vector borne or zoonotic disease

Brucellosis

0.92 (0.70−1.22)

0.587

1.21 (1.05−1.40)

0.011

1.49 (1.30−1.70)

<0.001

1.03 (0.83−1.29)

0.762

1.12 (1.00−1.25)

0.054

1.34 (1.21−1.48)

<0.001

HFRS

0.71 (0.53−0.97)

0.032

0.83 (0.70−0.97)

0.022

0.78 (0.66−0.92)

0.003

0.51 (0.37−0.70)

<0.001

0.61 (0.52−0.72)

<0.001

0.77 (0.66−0.90)

0.002

Malaria

0.51 (0.42−0.64)

<0.001

0.35 (0.30−0.40)

<0.001

0.42 (0.37−0.49)

<0.001

0.62 (0.45−0.85)

0.004

0.12 (0.08−0.17)

<0.001

0.22 (0.16−0.30)

<0.001

Hydatid disease

0.76 (0.36−1.58)

0.461

1.99 (1.38−2.89)

<0.001

1.90 (1.31−2.77)

0.001

0.68 (0.44−1.05)

0.084

0.98 (0.79−1.20)

0.814

1.20 (0.99−1.45)

0.073

Dengue

0.41 (0.05−3.32)

0.404

0.01 (0.001−0.22)

0.004

0.01 (0.0004−0.16)

0.002

−

−

−

−

−

−

Typhus

0.62 (0.38−1.01)

0.056

0.90 (0.70−1.16)

0.408

0.93 (0.73−1.19)

0.563

−

−

−

−

−

−

  1. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used for estimating the IRRs measuring the association of NPIs with disease trends. The models were adjusted for monthly healthcare visits and yearly long-term trend after seasonality was removed by a time series method. IRR < 1 with P < 0.05 indicates significant decline in incidence rate in year 2020 compared to year 2014–2019. All p-values are two-sided and not adjusted for multiple comparisons.
  2. Statistically significant reductions (IRR < 1) are displayed in bolded font.
  3. *Data of Hubei and Tibet (both in South China) were not included in modeling due to unavailable healthcare visits data during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  4. † HFMD, hand, foot and mouth disease; AHC, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis; HFRS, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.
  5. ‡Phase II: Feb 2020 and Mar 2020; Phase III: Apr 2020 to Aug 2020; Phase IV: Sep 2020 to Dec 2020. The reference period is Jan 2014 to Jan 2020.
  6. –: GLM was not fitted for disease with median monthly case number is less than 50.
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