Fig. 2: Identifying the local exceedance of heat risk thresholds associated with the “Reasons for Concern” framework.
From: Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
Heat maps here show the range of country-level governance index (x axis) and the signal-to-noise ratio of changes in the hottest day of the year (TXx, y axis) experienced by different fractions of the global population under one future scenario of warming and socioeconomic change. Population and governance index data are presented for the year 2050 under a middle-of-the-road socioeconomic scenario (SSP2) while the multimodel median exposure to extreme heat (y axis) is shown in response to a global temperature rise of +2 °C above early industrial levels. Coloured numbers above the panel denote the total number of people within each of the four risk designations, which are represented by shaded regions in the background of the main figure: purple represents “very high” risks; red represents “high” risks; yellow denotes “moderate” risks and grey denotes “low” risks.
