Fig. 4: Examining the individual dimensions of uncertainty affecting local risk estimates.
From: Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
As with Fig. 2, the background colours represent the four risk categories (grey is negligible; yellow is moderate; red is high; purple is very high) associated with different thresholds of extreme heat hazards, and governance index thresholds. Panels in the middle column (b, e, h) represent the same scenario as for Fig. 2: the median CMIP5 estimate of the number of people exposed to each of the four risk categories in the year 2050 under SSP2, when global temperatures are 2 °C above early industrial levels. a and c explore variations in these results due to climate model uncertainty; d, f explore variations due to alternative SSP scenarios; and g and i consider differences arising from uncertainty in the vulnerability threshold (as designated with variations of local risk thresholds in the background). The four coloured numbers above each panel denote billions of people within each of the four risk categories.
