Fig. 5: Global municipal solid waste incinerated and burned in open fires and related emissions.

a Global amounts of municipal (MSW) incinerated and burned in open fires, b related emissions under baseline (CLE) and mitigation (MFR) scenarios and c MSW burned in open fires and incinerated (negative values in y-axis refer to the avoided open burning of MSW). Reduction fractions of MSW open burned result in the same reduction percentage of particulate matter and air pollutants. An increase of MSW incinerated with energy recovery is expected in all MFR scenarios. The reduction of CO2 emissions results from the decline of MSW openly burned and increase of recycling. Growth in CO2 emissions in the MFRs families after 2030 is driven by the increase of MSW generation and the diversion of refuse MSW from landfills to incineration with energy recovery. The additional decline in CO2 emissions in the SSP1_MFR is the consequence of reducing plastic waste generation. Supplementary Information section 2 presents a detailed analysis of the MFR scenarios.