Fig. 2: Incidence and Rschool from the fitted model.

We display time-series of (a) total incidence among pupils (blue) alongside incidence occurring through external (non-school) infections (red) (b) Rschool through time (thin line) alongside its seven-day moving average (thick line). Results obtained from 100 simulations in 2,979 secondary schools, each with a distinct parameter set sampled from the posterior distribution. In all panels, solid lines correspond to mean temporal profiles, shaded ribbons represent 95% prediction intervals and the shaded vertical grey regions represent time periods when schools were not fully reopen (either due to closures or school holidays).