Fig. 2: Cross-validated prediction performance.

A Prediction performance (Pearson’s correlation between observed and predicted values) using kernel ridge regression for resting state and task states (MID, SST, and N-back). Multikernel FC utilized FC from all 4 brain states for prediction. * denotes above-chance prediction after correction for multiple comparisons (FDR q < 0.05). ^ denotes statistically significant difference between approaches after correction for multiple comparisons (FDR q < 0.05). Note that we only compared multikernel FC with N-back, the best single-kernel regression performer. For the single-kernel results, we only compared resting state with each of the three task states. The boxplots show the average accuracy within each behavioral domain across 120 replications. The cognition domain comprises measures such as fluid cognition and working memory. The (impulsivity-related) personality domain comprises measures such as sensation seeking and behavioral inhibition. The mental health domain comprises measures such as thought problems and psychosis severity. For each boxplot, the horizontal line indicates the median and the circle indicates the mean. The bottom and top edges of the box indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. Outliers are defined as data points beyond 1.5 times the interquartile range. The whiskers extend to the most extreme data points not considered outliers. Task FC appeared to only improve prediction performance for cognition, but not (impulsivity-related) personality or mental health. Multikernel FC improved prediction performance for cognition and personality, but not mental health. Similar conclusions were obtained using coefficient of determination (COD) instead of Pearson’s correlation as a measure of prediction performance (Supplementary Fig. 1). MID: monetary-incentive delay; SST: stop-signal task. B The average difference in accuracy (Pearson’s correlation between observed and predicted values) between the multikernel FC and N-back models across 120 replications. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.