Fig. 1: Projected changes in the Afro-Asian summer (June, July, August, and September) monsoon (AfroASM) precipitation and uncertainty of the projected changes.
From: Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation
a Time series of 5-year running mean of AfroASM precipitation anomalies (units: mm day−1), relative to 1950~1980 mean. Historical (gray) and SSP5-8.5 (red) simulations are shown for the 5th and 95th percentiles across 30 models (shading), and the ensemble mean (thick solid lines). The blue solid line is the AfroASM precipitation anomalies after emergent constraint. The black solid and dash lines are the observational series from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.02 and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre version 7 (GPCC v7), respectively. b Changes in precipitation (units: mm day−1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario (2050–2099) relative to historical simulation (1965–2014). The region surrounded by the contour is the Afro-Asian monsoon region (see Methods). c The inter-model standard deviation (σ) of projected precipitation changes. Hatched regions denote signal-to-noise ratio between the absolute value of projected changes and the standard deviation less than 1.5. The regions where precipitation changes are lower than 0.1 mm day−1 or over ocean is omitted.
