Fig. 2: Dominant pattern of projected uncertainty and related historical pattern.
From: Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation
a The projected precipitation (shading, mm day−1) and wind at 850 hPa (UV850; vector, m s−1) across 30 CMIP6 models under high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) regresses onto the inter-model normalized leading principal components (PC1). The PC1 are derived from the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of projected precipitation change under SSP5-8.5 in 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014 (see Methods). The percentage on the top-right corner is explained inter-model variance. b the future increase of surface temperature in 2050~2099 and c the trend of surface temperature (K) in 1965–2014 across models regresses onto the inter-model normalized PC1. Panels d and e are the zonal mean of the regression coefficient, and the thin dash vertical lines are the global area mean of the regression coefficient. The stippling, black vectors and hatching represent the regression exceeds 90% confidence level under Student’s t test. Black dash boxes in c are used to define the pattern indices to constrain the PC1 (see Methods).
