Fig. 4: Relationship between spreads in projection of Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) precipitation and historical warming pattern.
From: Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation
The scatter diagram between interhemispheric thermal contrast pattern index (ITCI, (K 34 yr−1)2) across models in the present-day climate and inter-model spread of AfroASM precipitation (a) and normalized PC1 (b). ITCI can explain the PC1 with high corrected correlation coefficient (r) which is shown on the top right corner. Black fitting line is obtained by the least square method, and the red fitting line is an observational correction based on Eq. (5) (Eq. (5); see Methods). Dashed curves denote the 95% confidence range of the linear regression. The red (black) vertical and horizontal dash lines denote the mean of ITCI across multiple observation datasets (models) and the constrained (raw) projection, respectively. The dark gray shading denotes the range of ±1σ across observation datasets. The light gray shading denotes the range contributed from the unforced internal variability (see Methods).
