Fig. 2: Dispersal and fire explain shrub expansion during 1984–2014.

a Sensitivity of new shrub area to environmental suitability and probabilities of seed arrival via short- and long-distance dispersal at locations with (red bars) and without (blue bars) fire. Colored bars denote the average and vertical black lines denote range of the 95% confidence interval of the regression coefficients across optimal dispersal kernel parameters (n = 533). b Observed and estimated new shrub area, i.e., areal fraction at a 4 km scale, in 2014 at locations with (red) and without (blue) fire. The lines and shaded bands represent the medians and ranges of observed new shrub area (gray dots) for each bin of estimates with a width of 2%.