Fig. 3: Trends of LAI sensitivity to sub-surface soil moisture.

a Temporal variations of global mean LAI sensitivity to sub-surface soil moisture (\(\frac{\partial {LAI}}{\partial {SMsub}}\)) computed by 3-year blocks between 1982 and 2017. The y-axis denotes the change since 1982 in respective products or models. Solid lines denote the median results from ensemble observations (Obs) and land surface models (Model); Shaded areas denote interquartile ranges of LAI sensitivity from multiple LAI products and models; Text denotes slopes of trends; ** denotes passing the two-sided significance test as assessed with Mann-Kendall at p < 0.01 (Methods: Sensitivity trends). b Trends of LAI sensitivity to sub-surface soil moisture in observations and models using ensemble means. c Similar to b but for land surface models. Insets indicate the area fraction of decreasing and increasing trends within the global land area, excluding irrigated and non-vegetated regions. Light blue and red colors denote insignificant changes (p > =0.1); dark blue and red colors denote significant changes (p < 0.1). In b, c, two-sided significance tests are done for each grid cell at the p < 0.1 level as assessed with Mann-Kendall’s test. See Methods: Auxiliary data about the determination of irrigated/non-vegetated and non-soil-moisture controlled regions.