Fig. 4: Comparison of COVID-19 daily hospitalisations and deaths with SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity as measured in REACT-1.

Daily swab-positivity for all 17 rounds of the REACT-1 study (black points with 95% confidence intervals, left-hand y-axis) with P-spline estimates for swab-positivity (solid black line, shaded area is 95% confidence interval). A Daily hospitalisations in England (blue points, right-hand y-axis) and P-spline model estimates for expected daily hospitalisations in England (solid blue line, shaded area is 95% confidence interval, right-hand y-axis). Daily hospitalisations have been shifted by 19 days (95% CI, 18, 20) backwards in time along the x-axis up to June 14, 2021 and by 16 days (95% 14, 18) thereafter. B Daily deaths in England (red points, right-hand y-axis) and P-spline model estimates for expected daily deaths in England (solid red line, shaded area is 95% confidence interval, right-hand y-axis). Daily deaths have been shifted by 26 days (95% CI, 25, 26) backwards in time along the x-axis up to June 14, 2021 and by 16 days (95% CI, 15, 17) thereafter. The scaling parameter estimates were 0.060 (0.058, 0.062) and 0.24 (0.23, 0.25) for deaths and hospitalisations, respectively.