Fig. 4: Predicted fraction of open vegetation through time.
From: The origin and evolution of open habitats in North America inferred by Bayesian deep learning models
Fractions are calculated as the proportion of all terrestrial cells across North America predicted as open vegetation with the best model (model 1). The solid yellow line shows the mean estimates across all posterior samples, while the shaded area shows the 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval. The blue line shows the mean rate of open habitat expansion, calculated across each preceding 1-million-year time bin. The colored bar forming the x-axis marks the geological epochs covered by our predictions, including the Pleistocene (PE), Pliocene (PL), Miocene, and Oligocene (not shown is the Holocene, from 0.01 Ma to present). The small panels show histograms of the posterior estimates of open vegetation fraction (95% HPD), marking important points in time for open vegetation evolution. These points highlight (i) 23 Ma, the earliest time where our model predicts the presence of open vegetations with confidence (>95% HPD); (ii) 5 Ma, beginning of Pliocene and the start of an acceleration in open vegetation expansion; and (iii) 2–3 Ma, beginning of Pleistocene epoch, marking the highest rate of open vegetation expansion. Source data are provided as a Source data file.
