Table 1 List of modelling scenarios and key assumptions
From: Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
Scenario | Result type | Assumptions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mobility | Waning | Booster uptake | Seasonality | Vaccine policy | ||
Basecase* | - | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake |
No return | Behaviour | No change | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake |
6-month return* | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
3-month return | 3-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
3-week return | 3-week | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
No boosters | Boosters eligibility/ uptake (relative to second dose levels) | 6-month | Central | None | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake |
50+ boosters | 6-month | Central | 95% in 50+ only | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
Actual boosters* | 6-month | Central | Age-specific measured uptake as of 14th April 2022†. Individuals aged 50 and above have at least 86.1% and at most 96.7% uptake. Individuals aged 15-49 have at least 40% and at most 80.9% uptake, relative to second dose levels of uptake. | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
High uptake | 6-month | Central | 90% in <50 s; 98% in 50+ | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
Central waning* | Waning | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake |
High waning | 6-month | High | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
Very high waning | 6-month | Very high | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
10% | Seasonality | 6-month | Central | Actual | 10% | 5+ 80% uptake |
20%* | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
30% | 6-month | Central | Actual | 30% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
40% | 6-month | Central | Actual | 40% | 5+ 80% uptake | |
5+, 80%* | Vaccine uptake for children | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 80% uptake |
5+, 50% | 6-month | Central | Actual | 20% | 5+ 50% uptake | |
