Fig. 3: Contrasting trends in precipitation sensitivity for drylands and non-drylands.

Comparison between the observed and modeled precipitation sensitivity trend as a percentage of the multi-year average. For observations and the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM), red and blue indicate dryland and non-dryland regions, respectively. MMEM and attribution are obtained from MsTMIP model scenario simulations. For observations, bars represent the median trends and error bars indicate the 95% confidence interval of spatial variation through bootstrapping. For models, the bars and error bars indicate the mean and standard error of the mean (SEM) of median trend across models, respectively. Semi-transparent dots represent the median trend from each model. Since not all models provide simulations for all four scenarios, to delineate the contribution for each driving factor, different models may be used (Methods). The sample sizes for each factor are: Observation 17601 and 14095 (for dryland and non-dryland, respectively); MMEM 4 and 4; Climate 10 and 10; Land use 9 and 9; CO₂ 9 and 9; N Deposition 3 and 3.