Fig. 4: Impact of natal and current drought on the survival of the red kite population of Doñana National Park (southwest Spain).
From: Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator
Survival through life of firstborn (Rank 1) and junior (Rank 2) red kite nestlings born in years of normal marsh inundation (dark blue and light blue lines for Rank 1 and Rank 2 individuals, respectively) or drought (orange lines), and when they encountered in later life a contemporary drought (b) or a contemporary year of normal marsh inundation (a). Main results: (1) in adults (above 7 years old, right-most portion of both panels), natal drought depressed survival for all individuals, irrespective of current conditions (compare blue vs orange lines within each panel); (2) natal drought lowered survival for most individuals at all ages (compare light blue vs orange lines), except for Rank 1 individuals born in normal years (dark blue line). (3) The latter suffered increased mortality when they encountered drought during their early life (compare dark blue lines between a, b over ages 1–2 and 3–6). The graphed data refer to the best supported model 22 of Supplementary Table 3. Rank 1 and Rank 2 nestlings had virtually identical survival estimates (differing from the third decimal figure); for clarity, they were thus pooled into a single category to avoid two fully overlapping lines. Based on recapture data from 688 individuals ringed as nestlings. Error bars represent 1 SE. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
