Fig. 4: Phylogeographic simulations of viral spread following a successful introduction into a new ecologically suitable area. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Phylogeographic simulations of viral spread following a successful introduction into a new ecologically suitable area.

From: Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Fig. 4

Phylogeographic simulations are based on the tree topologies inferred for Lassa virus clade II (segment S). Virus dispersal was constrained by ecological suitability using ecological niche projections for Lassa virus in 2050 according to scenarios RCP 6.0 (a) and RCP 8.5 (b). 95% highest posterior density (HPD) polygons are coloured according to time and based on 1000 simulations starting from the same ancestral location. For each set of simulations, a zoom on the outcome is shown. For the illustration, five distinct phylogeographic simulations per scenario are also displayed in Fig. S14.

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