Fig. 3: Detection of SARS-CoV-2 lineages under different genomic surveillance scenarios, assuming random sampling.

A The probability of detecting at least one genome of a rare lineage under different sequencing regimes. B Relative importance of decreasing genomic sequencing turnaround time (TAT) versus increasing sequencing percentage, measured as the probability that a given lineage (in simulated datasets) was detected before it had reached 100 cases (described in Fig. S8) across n = 100 resamplings. C–G Probability of detecting any of the top 10 most prevalent lineages considering TATs of 7, 14, 21, 28 and 35 days across n = 100 resamplings.