Fig. 2: The emergent relationship over typical regions.
From: Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability
Scatterplots of the present-day precipitation (pr5d) variability and the probability ratio of extreme precipitation (95th percentile of pr5d) changes under a 3 °C global warming increment in the joint ensemble of CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6). Regional cases include: Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (45°−70°N) in June-to-August (JJA; a), Southern hemisphere mid-latitudes (45°−70°S) in JJA (b), Northern Asia in JJA (c), West North Pacific in JJA (d), Europe in December-to-February (DJF; e) and Eastern North America in DJF (f). See blue boxes in Fig. 1 for region definitions. Numbers denote individual models (blue for CMIP5 and red for CMIP6). Thin gray lines are linear fits, with correlation coefficients noted in top-right (asterisks denoting significant correlation at the 0.05 level). Markers denote present-day precipitation variability in different observations or reanalysis, with their mean values shown in vertical lines. Horizontal bars in the bottom of each panel denote the range (minimum to maximum) of internal variability in the estimation of present-day precipitation variability from 5 SMILEs (Single-Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles; see Methods).
